US Business Activity Hits 11-Month Low Amid Global Economic Uncertainty

As of late March 2026, the United States economy is showing signs of cooling.

According to the S&P Global Flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), business activity has dropped to an 11-month low of 51.4.

The services sector, previously a strong performer, led this downturn.

Conversely, the manufacturing sector proved resilient, hitting a two-month high.

The primary driver for this uncertainty is geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, which has spiked global energy costs.

This "unwelcome combination" of slowing growth and rising inflation has fueled concerns about stagflation.

With GDP growth for the first quarter projected at a modest 1.3%, the Federal Reserve faces a tough dilemma: balancing the need to control inflation while avoiding further economic damage.

Businesses remain cautious, building inventory buffers and keeping a close eye on unpredictable global energy prices.